After fighting a three-year long civil war in the northern Iraq, Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Maossud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) came together as a united front to participate in the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime and in the politics of the new Iraq in 2003. On his will and according to an agreement, Talabani has moved his political focus from Kurdistan into Baghdad since 2005’s elections. However, this time it seems somewhat unlikely for him to secure another term as president due to the developments occurred in the Kurdistan region and the Arab part of Iraq following the Kurdish elections held on July 25th.

Talabani once has stated that Kurdish Regional President Barzani proposed him to run for the office of the President of the Republic of Iraq. This proposal of Barzani could be considered wise, as in the absence of Talabani, Barzanis’ influence has dramatically increased in the Kurdistan region, and their long rival, Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), has been badly weakened after a grave internal crisis which led to the split of the party in 2006.

The PUK was established in 1976 as a Marxist-Leninist-Nationalist party. It is considered to be a more decentralized and internally multi-faction movement.  PUK’s deputy leader Nawshirwan Mustafa resigned in 2006 and currently heads an opposition movement, Gorran (Change in Kurdish), with 25 seats in the Kurdish parliament. 

Iraq is supposed to hold national elections on Jan. 16, 2010 for the second time since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, following which the president and prime minster are elected.

Iraq’s incumbent Prime Minster Nuri al-Maliki seems to have a better chance of reelection than Talabani does, looking at the success he gained in the January’s provincial elections.

The first and foremost reason which makes Talabani less likely to enjoy another term is laid at a fact that his party was recently split into two opposing factions. Mustafa who heads the other faction was proven to be more popular than Talabani in the recent elections, as his party outmaneuvered PUK in Sulaymaniyah, the powerbase of the PUK, and Talabani’s birthtown of Koya.  

Article 61/3 of the Iraq’s Constitution says that Iraq’s president is elected by the Council of Representatives. Talabani’s win of another term is reliant on how many members of the parliament vote for him. 

Joost Hiltermann, Iraq’s expert at the International Crisis Group (ICG), doubts that Talabani would get the support of any of the MPs of Gorran, which has been registered to participate in the elections independently. 

“We can see that Gorran in the Iraqi elections may side itself with other factions who have only different views. One of the issues that Gorran may have a different view about is the president of Iraq,” said Hiltermann. 

One of the main issues that Gorran is so much concerned about is the re-installment of those government and PUK employees who were fired by the PUK for they voted for Gorran instead of the PUK’s joint list with the KDP, according to Hiltermann.

After PUK’s failure in the last July 25th elections, the KDP feels that it would be injustice if the government positions were to be equally distributed between KDP and PUK. Due to this reason and some other reasons, the new cabinet has yet to be formed, though the elections were held 77 days ago.

The question of what would be the future post of Talabani, if he does not win the Iraqi presidency is still unclear, however one of the following possibilities is likely to occur.

As to the first possibility, Talabani could himself quit politics forever and instead try to help underpin the positions of his family and sons in Kurdish politics and also begin writing his memories, as he said in his interview with London-based Asharq-al-Awsat daily newspaper.

Secondly, Talabani may become the Prime Minster of the Kurdistan Region. As there is a secret strategic agreement signed by the KDP and PUK, it is not clear how long Baraham Salih will be heading the government, some argue he would not do more than two years.

However, the bad health and old age of Talabani undermines this option. The next Prime Minster and government are expected to spend a hard time, as the Kurdistan Region for the first time is going through a sensitive time where a viable opposition constitutes one third of the parliament seats.       

Another option is that Talabani could become president of the Kurdistan region. One of the obstacles to prevent this possibility from happening is laid at the tribal character of the recently re-elected President Barzani. Tribal people usually don’t like to forge compromises and interpret them as a sign of weakness. Influential Iraqi author Ali Wardi believes that Iraqi people in general are a people who avoid doing some of the civilized jobs which are perceived threats to their dignity and braveness such as even conformation to the law.

According to the Lio institute at the University of Columbia “eighteen million (of 25 million) Iraqis belong to tribes whose decisionmaking is dominated by tribal elders.” 

However, Talabani still has a lot of strong cards to use against the KDP and Barzani if they refuse to conform to his wills. One of which is Talabani’s reconciliation with Mustafa. By doing so, Talabani will take the control of both government and parliament entirely and weaken Barzani’s party to an extent which will have no more choice but to become a good opposition.

Hiltermann, who is deputy director of the ICG, believes that “the KDP should be a little bit concerned that if it increases its pressure on the PUK, more cadres of the PUK seem to join Gorran, which makes the number of the opposition’s seats arise. Therefore, the KDP should work with PUK and show that, even if it is only in appearance, that PUK and KDP are equal.”

The final point which threatens Talabani’s reelection is the expectedly large participation of the Sunnis in the next elections, while they used to boycott the 2005’s elections as an objection to the US occupation of Iraq. This time, the Sunnis seem to become the second powerful Iraqi bloc after the Shiites. They did well in January’s provincial elections and ended Kurdish dominance in the province of Ninewah and some of its surrounding districts. 
 

The Kurdish version of this article was published in Hawlati newspaper.