Sulaimaniyah, Iraq: Convoys of trucks and cars, flying the flag of Kurdistan and decked out in the varied colours of their respective political parties, traverse the length and breadth of the city every night, shouting, singing and beeping their horns well into the early hours of the morning – despite a government plea for campaigners to quit their noise parades after 9pm. The city of Sulaimaniyah is in the grip of election fever.

In what has previously been a relatively obscure north-eastern corner of the state of Iraq, history is being made. If the upcoming Iraqi national elections proceed as smoothly as the Iraqi Kurdistan regional elections did last year, then we will be witnessing the maturation of the first true liberal democracy in the Muslim Middle-East.

Since 2003 the two dominant political forces – the KDP and the PUK – who divide Iraqi Kurdistan along broadly linguistic-tribal lines, have put aside their not inconsiderable differences and worked together to build an independent, democratic Kurdish nation-state, with the benefit of the hefty economic wealth the region’s oil reserves have bestowed.

However, the KDP-PUK hegemony, led by President of the Kurdish Regional Government Masoud Barzani and President of Iraq Jalal Talabani, is notoriously corrupt. Nepotism reigns, and the Party hierarchies in many cases have placed themselves above the rule of law, both of parliament and the judiciary. Loyalty to the military wing of each party, the Peshmerga (“those who face death”), among the general populace is understandably indissoluble – these soldiers bravely fought against Arab Iraq for their people’s freedom, and most family’s have such a martyr in their family tree.

But in the famously liberal city of Sulaimaniyah, cultural capital of southern Kurdistan, after almost seven years of steady but slow democratization, the people have become impatient with the leadership. In last year’s regional elections, most were surprised at the narrow victory of The Movement for Change (Gorran) in the city – especially considering the fact that experts reported several incidences of irregularities and suspected many more. The “movement” or “List”, not technically a party, was formed in December 2006 by President Talabani’s deputy, Nawshirwan Mustafa, a native of Sulaimaniyah and a respected former commander of the PUK Peshmerga. Members of the List campaign on an anti-corruption, pro-transparency platform.

This time around, however, there a lot more is at stake. If Talabani and his PUK lose their federal seats in their own stronghold, and it is expected they will, many are predicting not only a voluntary withdrawal and the end of the PUK as a major political force, but a requisite search for a new President of Iraq. Alternatively, the PUK may refuse to relinquish power and either (a) enact poll-rigging on a massive scale; or (b) reject the results, paving the way for conflict.

Eleven youths have already been injured, as supporters line the opposing sides of Sulaimaniyah main street every night, chanting and taunting each other while being watched over by well-armed riot police.

Last week, five were reported injured after a Gorran campaign rally clashed with PUK security forces, and in the last three months, sporadic incidents of intimidation against Gorran activists and party offices have occurred – in December, Rauf Zarayani was shot dead in front of his home in New Halabja, and at least eight journalists critical of the KDP and PUK have been physically assaulted since last August.

Nevertheless, having spoken to many of those concerned, neither the Change movement activists nor the journalists are dissuaded. There is a strong culture of democracy here, especially amongst the youth.

An extraordinary number of Kurds have lived and are living in Western European and North American countries, and very few see any contradiction in being Muslim and pro-Western style democracy. Islamist parties here get only very marginal electoral support, not much more than the Communist Party. No one has dared express concern at the amount of female members of parliament – nearly 30%, compared with the USA which barely tops 15%.

If power in changes hands peacefully enough in Sulaimaniyah after March 7, it will be Exhibit A against Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations” model – which defines the Islamic “civilization” in opposition to the West’s liberalism and democracy – not in far-flung “Sinic” Indonesia, but right in the heart of the Middle East, but a few hours from Islam’s holiest sites.

Matt Frazer is an independent journalist and writer living in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.